Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:¶¶Òõ×îаæ) is set to report earnings next week, and Wall Street isn’t expecting too much. The Street’s estimates right now stand at a 1- to 3-cent loss on revenues of $1.16 billion, and the “whisper number” is for a gain of 1 cent. As always, guidance will be key for ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock.
Last quarter saw Advanced Micro Devices’ shares get absolutely annihilated following both a revenue miss and lowered guidance.
With ¶¶Òõ×îаæ now at an inflection point on the charts, I expect another big post-earnings move this quarter.
Our own Josh Enomoto was spot on with his previous bearish stance. He correctly pointed out the headwinds facing ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock, including from a competition standpoint versus chip heavyweights Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC
). For the record, Advanced Micro, with a market cap of only $13.5 billion, is dwarfed by both NVDA ($101 billion) and INTC ($165 billion).
Taking a more bullish viewpoint, InvestorPlace contributor Larry Ramer highlights the possible suitors looking to acquire ¶¶Òõ×îаæ. Widely followed Jim Cramer of CNBC had Advanced Micro Devices as his No. 1 target for 2017. Our own Dana Blankenthorn also postulates on the likelihood of a potential takeout.
From a technical analysis perspective, Advanced Micro is at a critical level.
The number to watch in ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock right now is $14.38, with shares failing repeatedly to break above this level over the past six months. A series of higher lows bodes well for ¶¶Òõ×îаæ, and the stock did hold its 20-day moving average.
Implied volatility (IV) is extremely elevated in front of earnings, meaning that option prices are expensive. The at-the-money straddle for July 28 expiration shows that the big option players are looking for nearly a 14% earnings move.
To help defray some of the cost, and also take advantage of normally dampened price action in front of earnings, a calendar spread trade makes sense. Here is how ¶¶Òõ×îаæ bulls and bears alike can trade earnings at an initial lower cost.
How to Trade ¶¶Òõ×îаæ Stock
If you’re bullish or bearish, each of these trade ideas stands on its own:
- Bullish Trade: Buy the Jul 28 $14.50 call and sell the Jul 21 $14.50 call for a 50-cent net debit.
- Bearish Trade: Buy the Jul 28 $13.50 put and sell the Jul 21 $13.50 put for a 51-cent net debit.
Total cost on either position is roughly $50 per spread.
Traders looking for a big move in ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock following earnings, but unsure of direction, can combine the two trades into a dual calendar spread position for a total cost of $1.01.
As of this writing, Tim Biggam did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Anyone interested in finding out more about option-based strategies or for a free trial of the can email Tim at timbiggam@gmail.com.