Do a search for the letters “¶¶Òõ×îаæ, ” and you get a ton of varied opinions about Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:¶¶Òõ×îаæ) and ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock.
How varied?
Here are two headlines from an Aug. 15 Google News search.
- “¶¶Òõ×îаæ to surge more than 40% because its new chip will take share from Intel: Analyst” — CNBC, Aug. 15
- “Barclays predicts shares of ¶¶Òõ×îаæ, one of the market’s hottest stocks, will drop by more than 30%” — CNBC, Aug. 8
¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock closed Aug. 14 trading at $12.76, exactly $2.10 above the midpoint of its 52-week range and $4.13 above the midpoint of its five-year range. Twice so far in 2017, it has traded below $10.66.
Suffice to say, it’s an incredibly volatile stock.
Bank of America has a 12-month target of $18; Barclays is betting it’s more like $9.
Who’s Right about ¶¶Òõ×îаæ Stock?
Personally, I couldn’t tell you. What I do know is that in one of my recent articles about ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock, I predicted that Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) would hit $200 before Advanced Micro Devices hit $16. That was May 24.
Since then, ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock is up 18%. Meanwhile, NVDA stock is up 22.2% in the same period. Back in May, ¶¶Òõ×îаæ and NVDA were 31.9% and 30.7% from their respective targets. Today, Advanced Micro Devices is 24.3% from its $16 price target while Nvidia is 19.4% from $200.
It’s a horse race.
It Doesn’t Matter, Buy This ETF Instead
The truth is it really shouldn’t matter whether you’re backing ¶¶Òõ×îаæ or Nvidia or some other semiconductor company, only that the industry has been on a tear since 2014.
Over the past three years through Aug. 14, ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock’s averaged a 46.2% total return. Nvidia’s done even better, up 108.2% on an annual basis.
If we look ahead, it’s hard to know whether ¶¶Òõ×îаæ, NVDA, or both will keep moving higher. Bank of America sees ¶¶Òõ×îаæ moving higher while Barclays does not.
A logical person would consider this proposition (betting on either stock) a bad one because it’s possible that the good times are coming to an end. It’s also possible that the semiconductor stocks have a couple of good years left in them.
If you believe the latter is true, a sensible person would buy the SPDR S&P Semiconductor (ETF) (NYSEARCA:XSD) and take the guesswork out of the equation.
A modified equal-weighted portfolio tracking the S&P Semiconductor Select Industry Index, XSD holds including ¶¶Òõ×îаæ and NVDA with weightings of 3.65% and 3.36% respectively.
No holding has a weighting of more than 4.32% and less than 0.73%. Rebalanced quarterly, the weightings diverge as a result of individual stock performance.
Over the past decade, it has delivered an annual total return of , 195 basis points better than the S&P 500, beating the index in six out of the last ten years and up by 73 basis points with a little more than four months left in the year.
Bottom Line on Advanced Micro Devices
If you feel strongly about ¶¶Òõ×îаæ, by all means, go ahead and buy it.
However, if you’re smart, you’ll pay XSD’s 0.35% expense ratio, or $35 per $10,000 invested annually, and hedge your bet.
As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.