¶¶Òõ×îаæ Stock Will Ride Its Lead on Intel to More Long-Term Profitability

¶¶Òõ×îаæ (NASDAQ:¶¶Òõ×îаæ) has risen dramatically in 2019. ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock was up 149% during 2019.

¶¶Òõ×îаæ Stock Will Ride Its Lead on Intel to More Long-Term Profitability
Source: Akura Yochi / Shutterstock.com

Part of the reason was its huge market share gains for its 7 nano-meter chips, especially , including the 7 and 9 series chips. But how did this happen, and why? And will the ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock price gains be short-lived? Moreover, can ¶¶Òõ×îаæ sustain its market share gains?

Taking a step back, ¶¶Òõ×îаæ’s market share gains against Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) did not occur all of a sudden. The Financial Times published a very insightful article this summer that describes how ¶¶Òõ×îаæ pulled this off.

In the article, “¶¶Òõ×îаæ Looks To Build On Chips Advantage in Intel Fight,” Richard Waters, the author, shows how and when .

In fact, at one point less than four years ago, ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock had fallen below $2.00 per share. Moreover, at one point ¶¶Òõ×îаæ had to sell and leaseback its headquarters building just to raise cash.

But then, Waters argues, a new CEO, Lisa Su, took some chances. She is a former IBM executive who brought along another IBM technology exec, Mark Papermaster, the new CTO at ¶¶Òõ×îаæ. They decided that ¶¶Òõ×îаæ needed to redesign its chipset products from the ground up.

They started designing chips anticipating the needs of clients in the future. That led to a technology lead over Intel when those forecasts worked out. In addition, Intel had a slip up in its engineering, according to Waters.

How ¶¶Òõ×îаæ Stock Will Benefit

¶¶Òõ×îаæ Q3 slide presentation
Source: ¶¶Òõ×îаæ

So as it stands, the Ryzen chip is the only 7-nanometer size (smallest shrunk chipset) on the market. This is a huge advantage over Intel.

The Financial Times article describes how numerous large cloud companies are now starting to use ¶¶Òõ×îаæ chips.

In short, it appears that ¶¶Òõ×îаæ is starting to convert the technology lead into a sustainable business edge. In addition, it doesn’t hurt that there has been a CPU chip shortage for the past year. That has started to push prices up as well.

Moreover, ¶¶Òõ×îаæ is now projecting that its free cash flow is going to be positive for all of 2019. It also expects to gain mid-single gains in revenue for all of 2019.

Analysts expect 2020 will show considerable gains as well. Analysts in estimate that 2020 revenue will be $8.59 billion, up 28% from $6.71 for 2019. That puts ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock at less than 6 times sales.

Moreover, analysts project earnings per share of $1.1o for 2020. That puts ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock on just 42 times earnings. That’s expensive but not dramatically so for such a fast-growing company, especially if its market share gains are sustainable.

What Should Investors in ¶¶Òõ×îаæ Stock Do?

I wouldn’t be surprised if ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock takes a breather for the next six months or so. However, by the time analysts are projecting 2021 revenue and earnings, you might see another large increase in the ¶¶Òõ×îаæ stock price.

This is not a stock for value investors. In fact, Intel is probably much more a play for that kind of investor.

But ¶¶Òõ×îаæ’s technology lead may convert into large new cloud data center client gains and other market share gains. That could lead to a continuing sales rebound for ¶¶Òõ×îаæ.

You might be able to stomach the kind of volatility with this technology stock. Any earnings or sales miss could cause a hiccup in ¶¶Òõ×îаæ’s stock price. If not, take a look at Intel, and see if they are a better bet in the semiconductor sector.

As of this writing, Mark Hake, CFA does not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Mark Hake runs the  which you can review . The Guide focuses on high total yield value stocks. Subscribers a two-week free trial.

Mark Hake writes about personal finance on , and .


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