Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock fell 5% overnight after receiving on a large-scale study of its seasonal flu vaccine.
The vaccine uses the same messenger RNA technology as Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine but targets four strains of influenza simultaneously.
MRNA Stock’s Vaccine Dependence
Moderna went public in late 2018 at about $19 per share with of cancer, heart disease and vaccine drug candidates. But the Covid-19 pandemic made it a star, and Moderna is still trying to .
The price of success includes in which it’s defending its 2020 work with the government while challenging rival BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX
) on its .
It also includes a high public profile, with the Senate targeting price hikes on the vaccine, originally developed . The company tried to sidestep this by continuing to offer free Covid shots after the government’s emergency authority expires .
But Moderna stock has become dependent on its pandemic success. Moderna brought in during the first three quarters of 2022, nearly $6 billion in profit. Another $5 billion in revenue is expected for the fourth quarter, . Earnings of $4.66 per share are expected against $11.29 last year. Skepticism over how long Moderna can keep up the earnings pace are behind its price-to-earnings ratio of six.
A successful flu shot . Flu shots were a $5 billion market in 2020. That market is expected to . Moderna’s new study shows an immune response against the rare Influenza B strain that falls short of current vaccines. Moderna said it has adjusted its formula and will conduct another study.
What Happens Next?
If this is a short-term setback and Moderna’s new shot works against four types of flu, today’s MRNA stock price will look like a bargain. But that remains to be seen.
On the date of publication, Dana Blankenhorn held a long position in MRNA. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
